Is The Next Wave of Entrepreneurs Ready to 'Mobilize'?

No technology sector has been hit harder by the dot.com meltdown than wireless. The wreckage seems to be strewn about everywhere, in the form of massive layoffs, decimated stock valuations, Chapter 11 filings, and a virtual stampede of company shutdowns. Perhaps most damaged were the entrepreneurs and their investors. Many if not most have left the sector, and are not likely to return soon. Contrarians might argue that this is perfect time for entrepreneurs and investors to stake out a claim and develop it. Indeed, a recent flurry of background activity, and certain conditions, may be signalling the coming of the next round of entrepreneurs who may make their fortunes within the Mobile Internet.

Enabling Factors

There are a number of characteristics about the Mobile Internet that should make it particularly interesting to entrepreneurs:

Complex landscape: There are many links in the value chain - devices, networks, wireless infrastructure, middleware, content, WASPs, ISVs, etc. ... and no monopolies, certainly nothing like the WinTel monopoly, controlling any of the links. The mobile landscape is more fragmented than some would like, but that leaves many openings around and between the links for startups to find a niche and take hold.   Rapid rate of technical change and innovation: Despite the recession, the rate of technical change in the Mobile Internet is at least on par with the height of the early PC era in the '80s, or the early Web era in the '90s. Not only is the landscape complex, it's also rapidly changing, creating even more fissures for creative startups to find opportunities.   Many dimensions to value opportunities: The latest round of convergent devices are technically impressive, but clearly aren't selling very well beyond the early-adopter gadget freaks. Mass adoption of the Mobile Internet depends upon new modes of services, information, content and communications that don't exist today. Potential value propositions have many dimensions, far more than simply 'extending the Internet to the palm of your hand', including location-based services, eCommerce, user-interface technologies, peripheral device interactions, metrology, and others.   Enabling technologies have matured: The Mobile Internet will reach it's true potential only after the total experience which is provided to the user is very compelling, and more importantly, really works. Devices, wireless networks, gateways and other enabling technologies have matured significantly in recent years, in features as well as reliability.   Costs are much lower: The costs of network airtime and devices (with similar functionality) have been dropping dramatically and will continue to do so. In addition, the major costs of starting a new business (resources, office space, etc.) are more available and affordable than a year or two ago.   Strategic alliances: Not so long ago, major players in the Mobile Internet behaved as if revenue opportunities anywhere and everywhere in the Mobile Internet landscape were their entitlement - and that anyone outside their walls was competition. The recent tech recession and shakeout has forced the giants to retrench and refocus on their core competencies, and to accept that no one company can do it all. There's a heightened awareness of the importance of strategic alliances, and a greater willingness to cooperate with allies that can complement and add value to their solutions.   Global crossover: Until recently, wireless was somewhat parochial - networks and devices tended to be specific to only limited regions of the world. This is changing - network protocols and devices are rapidly crossing over geographic boundaries, creating opportunities for the solutions that they enable to be carried across the globe with them.   Gold among the ashes: Some of the recent failed mobile enterprises were simply the right ideas at the wrong time. Many could be compared to gold mines that have been abandoned, because the companies that owned them collapsed underneath their overextended weight ... but clearly there is gold there, and someone is going to move in and mine it.   "Hockey Stick" potential: Few would argue against the idea that once the Mobile Internet reaches a certain critical mass ... robust, compelling solutions throughout ALL the links of the value chain ... it will move beyond the 'early adopter' phase, and the market will explode. Obviously, the time to stake out a claim is before that happens.

So, in summary, the Mobile Internet is a complex, multi-dimensional, rapidly changing, increasingly global landscape that has just undergone a major shakeout, and has enormous upside potential.

Ideal conditions for the courageous entrepreneur to move in?

The #1 Lesson

The entrepreneurs that Outr.Net has worked with can be grouped into two categories: the 'Mobile' types, and the 'Internet' types. Many have had some sort of information service, and are seeking to extend that service - to create greater value and extend their clientele through the use of new communications enablers.

The 'Mobile' types typically have a communications background, and need our expertise with software. Conversely, the 'Internet' types have an Internet or software background, and need our expertise with the communications aspects.

Upon reviewing the success rate of these entrepreneurs, a somewhat surprising observation is made: the 'Mobile' entrepreneurs have generally been much more successful than the 'Internet' types at bringing their ideas to market.

There are a number of possible reasons, but it appears to boil down to one thing - a high sensitivity to the unique, personal user experience that a mobile device can provide.

To generalize, the 'Internet' types tend to think in terms of putting a browser of some type into the palm of the hand. The 'Mobile' types tend to be more experienced with the real limitations, in terms of airtime and user-interface, of mobile devices and networks. They have more experience with filtering the firehose of available information into an 'extract' of real knowledge that can be efficiently delivered to, and presented on, a handheld.

Our findings indicate that sensitivity to the opportunities, like alternative methods of delivery, interaction and presentation, are key differentiators in successfully deploying a mobile solution. These include notifications, triggers and alerts, offline operation, interactions with core applications and peripherals, and integrations of various communications modes. This is a complex issue, one that we'll expand upon in a future newsletter.

Admittedly, airtime is getting faster and less expensive, and displays are improving in quality and resolution, so perhaps one day we'll all be surfing the web and watching streaming movies on our wrists.

But our guess is that it won't be anytime soon, and it won't be where most of the value of the Mobile Internet will be found.

Challenges and Solutions

(reference: Products and Solutions for Entrepreneurs)

Entrepreneurs that are in the early stages of developing an idea typically have the following concerns:

Development Cost: "My ideas are still conceptual, but I need to have some idea of the cost and schedule to develop it into a product."   Market Potential: "How can I test the market and get an idea of market potential, without investing in the development of a finished product?"   Technology Choices: "There are so many competing devices and networks, and more on the way ... which one(s) are best for my product?"   Which Technology Partner: "How do I select a partner that will help me most efficiently develop my idea, possibly across different devices, and protect my intellectual property?"

The choice of device(s) and network(s) is a complex and critical one for the Mobile Internet entrepreneur, for both technical and business reasons. The characteristics of the device and network can have a fundamental influence on the design and features of a Mobile Internet product or service, and the support and co-marketing programs that the device and networks offer varies widely.

Once the target device(s) and network(s) have been selected, it's time to develop the idea in more detail. Outr.Net usually starts with 'Storyboards' and functional prototypes, to help iron out the details of the user interface. These are quick, inexpensive ways to help visualize the user experience, and are generally very useful in generating excitement and support for the idea within the organization, with investors, and with potential clients. These Storyboards are also a significant first step in co-developing a detailed functional specification, from which accurate development budgets and schedules can be derived.

Of course, once any project is underway, it's all about executing - arriving at real-world, maintenance-free solutions as quickly and efficiently as possible.

The best "technology partner", the one that has the experience, clientele and references? Outr.Net, of course!

Please click here for additional tips on getting started.

Conclusions

The dot.com era of the late 90's will be forever remembered for it's excesses and it's disasters. Yet, it also left behind information and productivity tools that will have everlasting benefits, and have set the stage for the next round of successful entrepreneurs. Never before has a startup had such power to research technologies and marketplaces, establish alliances, and achieve visibility for it's products and services.

One needn't be a techie to be one of the next generation of Mobile Internet entrepreneurs. It's much more important to be a leader - to have the courage to charge ahead when others are still falling back, to have the vision to see one of the many value opportunities in a complex and dynamic landscape, and to have the wherewithal to put together the right resources to quickly capitalize on that vision.

Written by:

Kim Spitznagel
President
Outr.Net, Inc.



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